By Legal Futures Associate Search Acumen
- Total transactions across the residential and commercial real estate market are down by -22% annually.
- December 2023 recorded the fewest property transactions per month (56,397) since the pandemic.
- Active law firms have reduced by -3% in the first six months of the year as a result, or by around 130 firms.
- The average property law firm handled -19% fewer caseloads in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year.
- Law firms have averaged 61 caseloads per quarter in 2024, compared to 74 across the same period in 2023, and 94 at its peak in Q1 2022.
- “With housebuilding comes increased investment from both the private and public sectors to support the real estate ecosystem. If Labour deliver, we could see a very different picture for transactions and caseloads this time next year. Law firms must prepare.”
With property transaction activity remaining persistently low, down -22% year-on-year, real estate lawyers may be feeling the reprieve from the summer heat as caseloads drop by a huge -19% in 2024 [Table 1].
Active law firms are also continuing to decline, according to the latest Conveyancing Market Tracker (CMT) from property data company Search Acumen, seeing a -3% reduction in the first six months of the year, or a drop by around 130 firms [Table 1]. This also represents an –11% drop in firms than a decade ago, from 4,317 in 2014 to 3,857 in 2024.
Table 1: 2024 transaction figures showing a downward annual trend
According to analysis, December 2023 recorded the fewest property transactions per month (56,397) since the pandemic, last reaching such historic lows in September 2020 (53,166).
The decline has seen law firms averaging far fewer caseloads in 2024 at 61 per quarter this year so far, compared to 74 across the same period in 2023 and 94 at its peak in Q1 2022 [Graph 1].
Graph 1: Average caseloads against total active firms, showing a downward trend from 2023 but stabilising to pre-pandemic levels
However, in the latest data available for June 2024, transactions remained steady. With increased investment stability and economic confidence that a new government could bring, levels are predicted to end the year on a more positive note [Graph 2].
Graph 2: Total transactions since 2022, showing a slow start to 2024 (black) but hopes of a stronger finish
Law firm activity in detail
Whilst average caseload numbers for property lawyers are dropping, they are reaching a point of stability after the huge backlog created in 2021/22 after the pandemic. Many, however, are keen to see more growth in these figures – in particular for the commercial real estate market – as it tries to climb out of its cycle low.
The top 5 law firms have seen its market share of caseloads drop slightly in Q2 2024 compared to the previous quarter, from 5% to 4%, but down -24% in a decade – signally a broader trend in a move to the middle.
This is also reflected in average transaction volumes for the top 5 firms, down -9% in a decade whilst all other firms have seen huge gains – the highest being the top 200 at +34% transaction share.
Andrew Loyd, Managing Director at Search Acumen, says: “Lawyers, like other industries, are feeling the pressure to do more with less. Pressure from clients to produce more in the same time frame – to be quicker as well as to serve their firms bottom line – is a balancing act where often technology can be used to expedite the process.
“Whilst the fact that caseloads are dropping may feel like a well-earned reprieve for many after the post-pandemic years, it is also an uncomfortable sign that growth is stagnating in real estate.
“Some firms are taking a much larger slice of the pie, knowing that when the heat is on, upping their game is essential. The data reflects this and what we know anecdotally, that the mid to large firms are investing in digital transformation and seeing their market share grow as a result.”
Andrew says the cycle low for commercial real estate may be at its end, and law firms need to prepare.
He explains: “We know housebuilding has been at historic lows with high ambitions cemented by a new Government to reverse this trend. With housebuilding comes increased investment from both the private and public sectors to support the real estate ecosystem, from retail to social housing. If Labour deliver, we could see a very different picture for transactions this time next year as land deals accelerate.
“What technology can deliver for businesses’ bottom lines here will be essential. The competition from professional service industries to be the firm of choice will increase as Labour’s housing policies bed in, in which the need to transact quickly, with effective and accurate digital tools, will play a leading role in the race against obsolescence.”
